Consulting briefs: Itasca, Coffey, Xstract
Staff reporter, 1 February 2012
Part of Itasca’s FLAC-PFC2D model.
WORK by a consulting firm for a leading gold miner is said to have produced an accurate simulation of localised rock damage and behaviour to aid new mine design models for South African’s deep gold mines.
Consulting and technology firm Itasca says work for AngloGold Ashanti is aimed at better understanding rock behaviour – especially brittle failure mechanisms – and ultimately devising a better “rational” methodology for mine design, especially as mining continues deeper.
“Itasca is doing this by developing a generic mechanical model for rock behaviour around advancing stopes in deep gold mines that can reproduce the induced fracture patterns,” Itasca said. “The work will allow fracturing mechanisms to be explored, and then relate them to in-situ conditions such as parting planes, in-situ stresses and existing mining geometry.”
Two approaches used to develop a modelling environment for stope-scale systems are a continuum-based Mohr-Coulomb strain softening model built using Itasca’s FLAC software, and a coupled continuum-discontinuum technique, where the continuum region is modelled in FLAC and the discontinuum region is created using an Itasca PFC2D model embedded in a larger FLAC model.
“Both investigated approaches produce well-defined shear fractures and stope-parallel extension fractures similar to those observed in the field,” Itasca has reported.
“In the coupled FLAC-PFC2D models, the bonded-particle material exhibits formation of conjugate shear fractures that correspond with shear fractures in the continuum material. Additional damage structures appear to be present within these shear fractures — for example, en echelon fracturing in the bonded-particle material is similar to what is observed in actual shear fractures underground.
“There is also evidence of spalling at the stope face, distributed damage ahead of the stope face and formation of extension fractures.
“Therefore, the coupled model successfully exhibits a richness of localized detail in the simulated damage, while the surrounding FLAC grid provides for large-scale models to be implemented.”
“SERIAL disappointer” in Austock’s newly formed ‘Second Half Club’, Coffey International will need to fulfil management’s forecast of an improved second half of fiscal 2012 to maintain recent improvement in its badly diminished share price. ASX-listed Coffey is back trading around A50c after plumbing sub-40c levels late last year, and has a market capitalisation of about $A122 million.
Stockbroker Austock said Coffey annual general meeting guidance toward $A45 million earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for FY12 implied little to no growth from FY11 but the “second half is expected to be stronger than the first”.
The problem was, Coffey management couldn’t/wouldn’t quantify the split between first and second half earnings when asked. “That may be unsurprising but no detail was provided on either the quantum of the 2H strength, the specific reasons, or any further detail on NPAT or revenue expectations for FY12,” Austock analysts said. They are okay with 44%/56%, but note Coffey’s management will need to deliver on their “turnaround year” prediction.
“We were somewhat surprised by the emergence of guidance at the AGM that second half EBITDA would be stronger than 1H,” Austock said. “Whilst management have not given any detail around the split, we think the guidance must emanate from an expected (or hoped for) improvement in the International Development business in 2H12. Further down the P&L, we anticipate that finance costs will be materially higher in 1H as debt was much higher entering FY12 and 2H will benefit from the equity raising and, hopefully, lower borrowing costs.
“As a result, we are forecasting a 40/60 split on NPAT for FY12.”
Austock reminded investors not to dwell too much on the contents of the rear-view mirror while acknowledging past performance would continue to sideline those who otherwise might be drawn to Coffey’s exposure to the infrastructure, mining and oil and gas sectors.
“This is a stock which has been a serial disappointer with several acquisitions made under the previous management team proving to be value-destructive, while loading debt on the group,” they said.
At present, the stock “still looks cheap versus peers but we think there are several reasons why investors may want some evidence that the change program is working before getting involved”.
WILL Sarunic is heading Xstract Mining Consultants’ recently formed geotechnical engineering division, while another new Xstract business area, processing, has several new staff.
Kristine Edwards has more than 20 years’ experience as a metallurgist and process engineer, joining Xstract as principal consultant – processing special advisor in its Perth office; Peter Murray, principal consultant – processing, also in Perth, has 40 years of mining and quarrying industry experience; and Manjot Singh, senior engineer – processing, is a process engineer with seven years’ experience in iron ore process engineering.
Sarunic, Xstract’s new manager geotechnical engineering and principal consultant, is a geotechnical engineer who has specialised in more than 20 years in the industry in openpit geotechnical engineering.
Also in the February 1 - 7, 2012 edition
- AFRICA
- Avocet cashed-up for expansion
- Rediscovering their Moto
- ASIA DESK
- Seeing some light in uranium gloom
- Steeled with renewed optimism
- CENTRAL ASIA
- Coal could power wider search
- COAL
- Farm conundrum grows for NSW miners
- Queensland minnows feel squeeze
- Strategic Cropping Land arrives
- Time to deliver for Cockatoo
- EXPLORATION
- Bell focus turns to Nigeria
- FINANCE
- Time to bet on red
- FROM THE CAPITAL
- Markets need to re-define what they mean by normal
- GOLD
- It’s an Olympic year: go for gold
- HEAVY METAL
- Heavy metal briefs: Sandvik, Caterpillar
- Komatsu's mining lift
- INTERCEPTS
- Alcoa smelter woes
- Allied moves to douse rumour
- Alpha Natural coal cutback
- AP to buy Patagonia
- Aphrodite scoping positive
- Bannerman secures DFS funds
- Beacon's Barlee boost
- BHPB alumina up
- BHPB profit falls
- Bilbao extension for Minco
- Blackgold posts resource
- Bligh partner talks
- Bokoni rejig
- Brimstone to pay for Penny's
- Centamin backs Nyota
- Chinalco extends Qld copper search
- CMD signs good for Lachlan
- CoAL welcomes Chapudi entry
- Copper One looks to resource
- Coppermoly advances PNG prospects
- Cuesta reports East Wandoan resource
- Downer confirms Karara win
- Dragon to speed work at Kuusamo
- Dugbe Shear hopes rise
- East Coast increases Wolfsberg potential
- ECR welcomes met results
- Eldorado wins independent support
- Exxaro says profit will jump
- First gold for Siana
- FMG awards software contract
- Franco-Nevada buys into gold complex
- Gascoyne starts Glenburgh study
- Glencore, Xstrata just chatting
- Globe to increase Memba stake
- Gulf ready to pounce
- Gunson looks to advance Coburn
- Harmony sounds higher profit note
- Hastings advances
- Higginsville lift for Alacer
- High grades for Sunrise at Derryginagh
- Hollister near 100,000ozpa
- Horizonte secures Brazil nickel
- Hot rock team formed
- IMX encouraged by Tomahawk results
- Indo completes Rajawali placement
- Iron ore record for giant
- Jatenergy starts Indo coal mine
- Kentor to fire up Murchison
- Kibali construction ready
- Kono sampling encouragement
- Kumtor struck down
- La Colorada lifts VANE
- Lake Victoria restarts Tanzania work
- Leopard spots opportunity
- Magma partner
- Mambare promise
- Merger to have sequels
- Mindoro's Pan de Azucar breakthrough
- More Deflector attention
- More ground for Forte
- No way through for Pathfinder
- Northam profit lift
- OM signs Sarawak power deal
- Optimism rises
- Ox must pay, with interest
- Palabora profit rises
- PanTerra starts drilling in Ecuador
- Peak looks for Ngualla control
- Pershimco extends placement
- Pilot drilling lifts Black Fire hopes
- Rain costs more Whitehaven output
- Rain dampens BHPB coal result
- Ramelius expands WA holdings
- Red Rock's Resource Star support
- Rio lifts iron ore spend
- Rustenburg trouble deepens
- SAG repairs boost CGA
- San Gold lifts SGX holding
- Sheffield sets Irwin target
- Silvercorp hits at short sellers
- Talk spurs Jaguar run
- Taruga debuts
- Taruga to make quick start
- Thiess wins more BHPB work
- Vane points to porphyry copper
- Wah clears to Brockman
- Waratah starts Youkou drilling
- Western Desert builds DSO base
- Xstrata posts $US5.8B profit
- Yeneena funding looking good
- Yuinmery resource in sight
- MINING
- Lougher may open up M&A vista
- MINING INTELLIGENCE
- ASIC, I fear it is now up to you
- MINING IT
- CAE Mining revenue up
- Growth at a price
- IT notebook: FEI, Itasca, Mincom
- PEOPLE
- Six dollar samples, 20c schooners and $1 apps
- PROJECT WATCH
- Nena edges ahead